Today’s objectives
War Makes the State
New colonies
New servitors
New powers
Eve of invasion
(Feb 23 2022)
Russia’s objective
Operational tempo (events/day)
Percent territory under occupation
Battle for Kyiv
(Feb-Mar 2022)
Operational tempo (events/day)
Percent territory under occupation
Battle for Donbas
(Apr-Jul 2022)
Operational tempo (events/day)
Percent territory under occupation
Ukraine’s fall offensive
(Aug-Nov 2022)
Operational tempo (events/day)
Percent territory under occupation
Russia’s winter offensive
(Jan-May 2023)
Operational tempo (events/day)
Percent territory under occupation
Ukraine’s 2023 offensive
(Jun-Oct 2023)
Operational tempo (events/day)
Percent territory under occupation
Russia’s long offensive
(Oct 2023 - )
Operational tempo (events/day)
Percent territory under occupation
What is “Military Victory”?
Pure “military victories” almost never happen
Not happening
Personnel losses in interstate wars since 1816
Total casualties per war
War winners vs. losers
Almost all wars end before belligerents exhaust military potential
Personnel losses in conventional ground battles since 1939
Casualties per battle
War winners vs. losers
Most battles end before belligerents exhaust military potential
How does this end?
Flight & fight
Opening bids (March, April 2022)
Russia’s terms
Ukraine’s terms
Most recent positions (June, October 2024)
Russia’s terms
Ukraine’s terms
Outside proposals
Trump Peace Plan
Beijing’s Peace Plan
Discussion: Is a peace deal possible in 2025?
True or false?
If any of the above is “false”, what can be done to make it “true”?
NEXT AND FINAL MEETING Group Activity 2 (Tu, Dec. 10)